I've professed my love for horse racing several times on the show. I have always been a fan of the sport, going back to the days when my buddy's dad would take us to the track on Saturdays and place a couple of $2 bets for us. Horse racing is, maybe, the best sport that nobody knows about.
That wasn't the case 20 or 30 years ago, though. Going all the way back to the early 20th century, horse racing was one of America's great interests, along with baseball and boxing. But with the advent of the internet, Playstation and HD TV, horse racing has sort of fallen by the wayside, especially in Chicago.
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| The iconic Twin Spires at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky |
The Kentucky Derby is one of the oldest annual events in sports. First run in 1875, it's become maybe the most iconic race in the world. It's the first in a series known as The Triple Crown. The Preakness (run at Pimlico at a mile and three sixteenths in Baltimore) will be run two weeks later, and the Belmont (a mile and a half at Belmont Park) three weeks after that. That's three long races in three weeks. It might be that today's thoroughbreds just can't handle that workload, and that's why we haven't had a Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978.
This year's race will be about as wide open as can possibly be, especially after the scratch of Uncle Mo. Uncle Mo won the Breeder's Cup Juvenile last November, and had been the Derby favorite up until his Wood Memorial performance. After the race, they discovered an internal infection, and Uncle Mo hasn't fully recovered. That just goes to show how hard it is just to get to the Derby starting gate. Thousands of thoroughbreds are born every year, and by the time they're three, just 20 get to Louisville on the first Saturday in May.
All that said, let's take a look at some of the horses I think are top contenders tomorrow.
1. ARCHARCHARCH
This poor guy...he may be the most talented horse in the race with the most upside, but before the race even starts, he's behind the eight ball. He drew the dreaded #1 post position. In any other route race, you could live with, even be happy with the 1 hole, because that meant you were basically ensured to save ground and take the shortest way around the track. But with 20 (now 19) horses in the race, they're all going to be vying to get to the rail to avoid getting caught wide on the first turn. More than likely, he'll get swallowed up and pinballed around. Watch the start of last year's Derby to see what I mean. Lookin at Lucky turned out to be a really, really nice horse, but he drew the unlucky 1 hole last year. Arch would need a TON of racing luck to pull this one out.
7. PANTS ON FIRE
This race has a lot of speed horses in it--that is horse that like to go to the front at the start--even with the defection of Uncle Mo. PANTS ON FIRE is one of these horses. Normally in a race full of speed, you look for a closer. That still may be true in this race, but it's entirely possible that a closer could get caught behind a big wall of horses at the top of the stretch, and run out of race. Should that happen, I think PANTS ON FIRE has the staying power to get the 10 furlongs (1 mile and a quarter). Look at his last race, the Louisiana Derby. That race is just a furlong shorter than the Derby, and he held on for the win. Another Derby contender was charging hard that day, and nearly got there. We'll talk about him later.
8. DIALED IN
Installed as the 4-1 favorite even before the scratch of Uncle Mo, DIALED IN comes in along with MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE as the most lightly raced of the bunch. Will that work to his advantage? It could. It's been more than a month since his last race. He only raced once as a two year old, a maiden score in November. More importantly, that race was over the Churchill Downs surface that he'll be on tomorrow. It's always nice to see a horse have experience over the track. In his last race, the Florida Derby, he came from way off the pace to get up, and it looked like he had more left in the tank. What might be his undoing, as I mentioned earlier, is the wall of horses that may form, or speed horses fading and backing up into him.
11. MASTER OF HOUNDS
A Brit coming over from across the pond, I'm incredibly intrigued by this horse. He did run in America once, and it was at Churchill, but it was the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf. The big question with this horse is whether or not he can handle American dirt. He was on a synthetic surface in Dubai, as he ran in the UAE Derby, and finished second. He ran a pretty good race, and he's also got the fact that it was run on an American-style oval going for him. What I find most intriguing, though, is the distance of that last race. It was a mile and 3/16ths, which means he's run the furthest of any horse in this race. Given the fact that he stayed well for the UAE Derby, I think he's got a real shot Saturday afternoon.
12. SANTIVA
Another runner with a win at Churchill Downs, he's got a front running style, but doesn't necessarily need the lead to win. Having never finished worse than third, he ran the Blue Grass at Keeneland on polytrack (a synthetic surface) and finished 9th. Throw that one out, and you've got a horse you can use in exactas and trifectas.
13. MUCHO MACHO MAN
Third to PANTS ON FIRE last time out, he's another one that's a front runner, but doesn't need the lead to win. He was very impressive in the Risen Star, beating SANTIVA in the process. DIALED IN did get to him in the Holy Bull, but that was his first race of his three year old season. He may be the best of the front runners, but if the pace is too hot, he could be cooked. He's coming from the middle of the starting gate, and could be clear to the inside. Could be live on Saturday.
15. MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE
This guy hails from California. Normally these horses are met with skepticism because of the prominence of synthetic racing surfaces there. But he's been racing at Santa Anita, which recently switched back to a dirt surface. That makes the Santa Anita Derby, which he won, that much more important. He did so very impressively, too. He was wide the whole time, and had to swerve in the stretch to avoid running up the back of COMMA TO THE TOP. He's got the perfect running style for the Derby, I think. He won't be out front, but won't be too far back, either. He could have the first run at the leaders in the last three furlongs.
16. ANIMAL KINGDOM
If you look at this guy's form without knowing he's never run on dirt, you'd like him a lot more. That being said, he's never been worse than second. His last race, The Spiral, was just a Grade 3, but it was still impressive as he beat two other Derby runners going away. He'll need pace, but he's almost sure to get it in this Derby. 30/1 in the program, but could be one to take a flyer on.
17. SOLDAT
I've been high on this horse going back to last summer. He spent last summer as primarily a turf horse, and probably will go back to the grass after the Triple Crown run. Another front runner, he seems like a need the lead type. He won two races in a row in wire to wire fashion before getting shuffled back in the Florida Derby and falling to 5th. It may be tough to get the outright lead, especially from post 17, but if he can be clear and near the lead, he's got a shot.
19. NEHRO
The 19 hole may be the only thing preventing this horse from winning the race. He's shown versatility in his running style, and Cory Nakatani is an experienced enough jockey to find a way to get comfortable in the middle of the field. The first run past the grandstand will be critical as he tries to find his way near the rail while not losing ground. Tough proposition, but if he can do it, he may be the first under the wire the second time around.
This should be a great race. I have no idea what my final pick will be. I know I just previewed half the field, but that's how wide open it is. You can probably take out ARCHARCHARCH, just based on post position.
I can't wait to watch the race, and root on whoever wins in the Preakness. The sport desperately needsa Triple Crown winner.
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